Atlanta Dream: A quick look into new coach Karl Smesko and star player Rhyne Howard

The Atlanta Dream have finished 11th, 9th, and 11th in ORTG over the course of the last three seasons.  Their offense has left more than a lot to be desired despite having one of the best offensive players in all of the WNBA, Rhyne Howard.  Fans of the Dream are optimistic that moving on from coach Tanisha Wright and bringing in Karl Smesko from Florida Gulf Coast is the right move to jumpstart a dead offense.

Coach Smesko is an intriguing choice to be the Dream head coach.  He comes from a boutique program (that he built) that never got the best prospects, but dominated their competition for two decades.  That success came on the back of great offenses that relied on constant speed and movement, "space and share" as he describes it.

Smesko has a lot to work with on this Dream roster.  The most prominent is Rhyne Howard, a 25 year old franchise player who is entering her fourth season.  The former Rookie of the Year, All-American, 1st Overall Pick, and All-Star (the accolades are endless) has shown a physical ability perhaps unlike any other player in the league.  She has a strong frame and indisputable skills with the ball.  Below are her 2024 season highlights. 

Three things stand out to me about Howard's highlights:

1.  The stagnation of the offense

2.  How she's swarmed by opponents

3.  The lack of passing

I think all of these points are intertwined.  But I'll address them below:

1. Stagnation of Offense

Hiring Smesko is supposed to solve this problem.  He said in his introductory press conference, "I want this to be a fun, exciting style to watch and I want it to be fun and enjoyable for our players.  I believe in pushing the ball, getting up and down the court.  Obviously known for utilizing the three point shot and creating a lot of space, and attacking the rim and playing together and sharing the ball.  I think we have the roster makeup where this would fit the skills of a lot of our players." I believe this will be solved.

2. Swarmed by opponents

It doesn't matter how good a player is--if three sets of hands are grabbing at the ball from all angles, the offensive player is going to have a bad time.  Hell, I could go play a group of 6th graders, and if three of them were trying to guard me, I'm not guaranteed success.  It just doesn't happen.  But opponents knew they could swarm Howard, the Dream's best offensive player, because the rest of their offense was stationary.  If Smesko's offense is implemented well, then opponents will be more reluctant to swarm Howard, and as we see, she's a fantastic one on one player.

3. Lack of passing

This is the real crux of the argument, in my opinion.  It's easy to blame the previous coaching staff for lack of success.  But we still have yet to see Howard create for her teammates in the way that top tier players do.  That concept is gravity, where a player is so good that opponents are pulled towards the one player, and it creates opportunities elsewhere.  Hypothetically, this should lead to more three point shots via kickouts and ball rotations.  Take, for instance, Breanna Stewart, a great scoring player who averaged 3.5 assists per game last season.  And while 3.5 assists aren't setting the world on fire, over half of those assists were converted by made three pointers.

Player	Assist Totals	3PM Assists	% of Assists from 3PM
Breanna Stewart	134	79	58.9
Napheesa Collier	115	62	52.5
Aliyah Boston	126	61	48.4
Dearica Hambry	139	50	35.9
Rhyne Howard	94	26	27.6

This is what I'd argue is the most important aspect that the Dream need to improve on this season, specifically Howard.  A majority of her assists came off dump-off passes in the paint.  There is nothing wrong with that concept.  But I think it is possibly indicative of a player who holds onto the ball a dribble too long, IE she should get rid of it a beat sooner than she does.  If you've ever played basketball, you know that getting too deep can create problems in terms of kicking the ball out.  I suspect that Howard has played this way, probably out of necessity and the way the team is fundamentally built.  There's also the argument that maybe the Dream haven't had good shooters, but I don't believe in bad shooters.  There are no bad shooters, only bad shots.  If a player is open they need to shoot the ball, and open players will make a punishing amount of open shots.