A look at Atlanta's second half three point attempts vs the Fever

The Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever played for the second time in three days last night, and the rematch was every bit as competitive as the first.  Atlanta won an offensive battle on Tuesday, but Thursday they gave up in a defensive fight.  The success they had from game one's strategy didn't carry over Thursday.  In game one, they relied heavily on Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones to set the offensive tone.  Last night, though, Griner and Jones weren't able to find their groove for a multitude of reasons--the Fever defense did a great job of denying entry passes and sublime post positioning, and Griner herself fouled out for the second straight game.

Without their post players in the gameplan, Atlanta relied heavily on their three point attack in the second half, going 5/16 in the 3rd and 4th quarter and 10/29 overall.  Atlanta is now second in the league in three's attempted per contest, just under 32 a game (on 31.6%).

First, here are the three point attempts from the third quarter last night:

The Dream went 4/7 from three in the third.  What I liked about these attempts was the quality--the ball never touched the paint, but they still came off passes rather than point of attack shots.  If you look purely at the catch and shoot stats, Atlanta went 4/6.  The attempts were of high quality and came off both transition and scramble.  But they weren't from any set offense and more free flowing, which is fine, but is not indicative of a good three point shooting team.  

Here are the attempts from the fourth quarter:

In the fourth, Atlanta went 0/4 from catch and shoot threes.  Again, not a single three came from a kickout paint touch.  That's a problem because you're not making the defense work to defend you and breaking them down.  If a defense can stay in front of an offense for the entirety of the possession, they will consider it a win.  

More of a problem though was the four attempts that came off dribbles.  Atlanta went 1/5 from attempts were the shooter dribbled before hand, which are lower quality attempts.  Plenty of players may have the ability to make these shots, but they are often times the lowest quality shots in basketball because of the percentage to make.  And Atlanta shot themselves in the foot by attempting so many in the fourth.  It was indicative of an even bigger issue all around--they had no structured offense.

So Indiana did a great job of pressing the ball handlers just enough and dislodging the Atlanta bigs throughout the game that by the time the fourth quarter came around, Atlanta had no choice but to rely on lower quality three point attempts.  

No one shot was more emblematic of Atlanta's faults than this Rhyne Howard attempt in the fourth quarter.  

The Dream are down one point after a Kelsey Mitchell three pointer.  Howard, who up to this point had a strong fourth quarter and game, takes it upon herself to try to splash a haymaker over Clark, a player she's been tasked with guarding for two games and who she's been quite contentious with.  Their certainly was a level of ego to this shot--Clark is undoubtedly the most popular player in the league and Howard wanted to make a play over her on a primetime game at home.  But Howard herself had strong success getting to the hoop in the fourth quarter.  And Clark had 5 fouls as well, which means she would've had to play some level of conservative to not foul out.  And even more problematic is the fact that Atlanta is only down one point, which means they didn't need a semi-contested stepback three with 90 seconds left in the game and 14 on the shot clock.  Overall, though, Atlanta was inefficient all game in their offensive sets and had to let it rip from three.

The real credit for this should go to Indiana's defensive effort.  This was a playoff atmosphere type of game.  Familiarity breeds contempt, and Atlanta certainly played with contempt towards Indiana after Tuesday's match.  As one user on reddit pointed out, Atlanta was providing a template for the rest of the league on how to guard Clark, and if something wasn't to be done, it was going to be open season on Clark and the Fever.  Still, Indiana took a massive step towards contendership with this win.  They won a type of game that not many people believed they could win:  a defensive slobberknocker that saw both Clark and Aaliyah Boston have nonexistent offensive performances.  

A look at the off-ball action from the Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks

The Phoenix Mercury held off the LA Sparks 89-86.  The Mercury were buoyed by their stars Alyssa Thomas, who had 19/5/7, and Satou Sabally, who continues her great start with 25 points.

Phoenix's good start through two games is encouraging for a team that is missing Kahleah Copper, a dynamic 20 point per game scorer from all facets of the floor, and is relying heavily on role player production from overseas players and rookies.  Considering a bevy of minutes are coming from players who either missed significant or all of training camp and preseason, Phoenix could easily fall back on the excuse of not having enough time to gel for lackluster play.  But that isn't the case.  As mentioned earlier, Satou Sabally has started great, scoring 30 and 25 points in her first two contests, and Alyssa Thomas has been the all-world, all-versatile MVP candidate she's proven to be.

Still, basketball is a team game.  Without role players primed for success, a team can quickly sputter.  There's just too many shots in a basketball game for a top heavy team to have any long term success.  Below is a video of clips from last night's game showing how Phoenix is laying the foundation of an offense that enables role players to find shots and keep opponents honest.

Watching a lot of early season games, you can tell which teams are working towards sustainable success, and which teams are heavily reliant on one or two players to carry the offensive load.  Phoenix did an excellent job last night of consistently setting up an offense that utilized multiple actions off the ball, springing open players for cuts, shots at the basket, and open threes across court.  It didn't always bring points to the scoreboard, but this kind of honest offensive action makes it difficult for opponents to hone in on Thomas and Sabally (and eventually Copper.)  Along with gaining 23 points off turnovers, integrating role players so well bodes well for future success in Phoenix.  Thomas will be an MVP candidate at the end of the season and Sabally is showing how great she is.  Both players have no problems scoring on their own.  But by buying in to getting role players shots and opportunities, the Mercury stars are investing in the future of the team--eventually these shots will go in and role players have a habit of winning a game or two in the playoffs when it matters most.  But that opportunity doesn't happen if the foundation isn't in place, and it seems coach Nate Tibbetts and the Mercury leadership is committed to making that happen.

How Atlanta used Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones in the first half against Indiana

The Atlanta Dream made an intentional effort to work the ball inside early and often in last night's game against the Indiana Fever.  It was an adjustment the team made after their first game, a loss to the Washington Mystics.  In the first half of the first game, the talented and experienced frontcourt of Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones attempted only 7 paint shots.  Last night, the two attempted 13 shots in the paint.  Here are the attempts:

Last play of the Dream vs Fever game

I think I'll have more of a breakdown of this game tomorrow because it was a fun watch, but right away I want to look at the last play of the game.  There are a lot of Fever fans upset that the last shot went to Natasha Howard, but let's give credit where credit is due:  the Dream played awesome defense at the end there.

Here is the sequence for reference:

And here is the response from some internet users.

Howard is going to get a ton of heat from the Fever fanbase because she missed four free throws and the game winner.  And it's understandable that fans feel cheated by not seeing Caitlin Clark or Aaliyah Boston take the last shot.  But all the credit should go to Atlanta for forcing this play, specifically Brionna Jones, who did an amazing job of not getting beat on the cross screen and letting Boston set up on the low post.  What I suspect was going to happen was an inbounds pass to Boston and a read to get Clark a shot in the corner or top of the key going left off the inbounds, or maybe even a spin move for a layup for Boston.  But since Jones played it so well, Clark had to throw it over the top to Natasha Howard, who made a great catch.  Nia Coffey played it perfectly and blocked the shot.

Now what I don't understand:  on TV it said that Indiana had a timeout remaining, but they took the reset timeout to advance and I think that was their last timeout.  There's no way the Fever ended the game with a timeout, right? Right?!

Arike Ogunbowale's 4th quarter shot selection vs Seattle

The Dallas Wings were mounting a comeback against the visiting Seattle Storm.  Despite being down by 15 at halftime, Dallas worked diligently in the third to cut the lead down to a mere five points entering the final quarter.

Towards the end of the game, though, Dallas was desperate.  Down by seven with 2:34 remaining, the Wings were in dire need of stops and scores.  The Wings certainly weren't out of it, especially since their second half defense was keeping them in contention, but the offense was anemic.  Watch the sequence that I believed killed Dallas's chances here:

A look at Jewell Loyd's playing style and potential on the Aces

Going into halftime, the Seattle Storm held a 36-28 lead against the two time defending champion Las Vegas Aces.  The Storm's defense had suffocated the Aces offense and the team overall was more physical, all according to head coach Noelle Quinn's pregame plan.  But during the halftime interview, Coach Quinn may have offered a glimpse of foreshadowing into the roster's eventual late season collapse.  Speaking about her team's offense, Quinn stressed the importance of moving the ball rather than isolation attacks: 

“We can’t get into ISO ball. We have to continue moving the ball.  Make them guard multiple actions.”

At the time (and perhaps even now to those who take things at face value) Quinn's comment seemed like coach speak.  But given what we know about the 2024 Seattle Storm --the lackluster finish post Olympic break, the off-season bullying accusations, and the finale of the longest tenured player's trade request--it was a shot undoubtedly aimed at the team's guard Jewell Loyd, who is now a member of the Las Vegas Aces.

Atlanta Dream: A quick look into new coach Karl Smesko and star player Rhyne Howard

The Atlanta Dream have finished 11th, 9th, and 11th in ORTG over the course of the last three seasons.  Their offense has left more than a lot to be desired despite having one of the best offensive players in all of the WNBA, Rhyne Howard.  Fans of the Dream are optimistic that moving on from coach Tanisha Wright and bringing in Karl Smesko from Florida Gulf Coast is the right move to jumpstart a dead offense.

Coach Smesko is an intriguing choice to be the Dream head coach.  He comes from a boutique program (that he built) that never got the best prospects, but dominated their competition for two decades.  That success came on the back of great offenses that relied on constant speed and movement, "space and share" as he describes it.

Smesko has a lot to work with on this Dream roster.  The most prominent is Rhyne Howard, a 25 year old franchise player who is entering her fourth season.  The former Rookie of the Year, All-American, 1st Overall Pick, and All-Star (the accolades are endless) has shown a physical ability perhaps unlike any other player in the league.  She has a strong frame and indisputable skills with the ball.  Below are her 2024 season highlights. 

Three things stand out to me about Howard's highlights:

1.  The stagnation of the offense

2.  How she's swarmed by opponents

3.  The lack of passing

I think all of these points are intertwined.  But I'll address them below:

1. Stagnation of Offense

Hiring Smesko is supposed to solve this problem.  He said in his introductory press conference, "I want this to be a fun, exciting style to watch and I want it to be fun and enjoyable for our players.  I believe in pushing the ball, getting up and down the court.  Obviously known for utilizing the three point shot and creating a lot of space, and attacking the rim and playing together and sharing the ball.  I think we have the roster makeup where this would fit the skills of a lot of our players." I believe this will be solved.

2. Swarmed by opponents

It doesn't matter how good a player is--if three sets of hands are grabbing at the ball from all angles, the offensive player is going to have a bad time.  Hell, I could go play a group of 6th graders, and if three of them were trying to guard me, I'm not guaranteed success.  It just doesn't happen.  But opponents knew they could swarm Howard, the Dream's best offensive player, because the rest of their offense was stationary.  If Smesko's offense is implemented well, then opponents will be more reluctant to swarm Howard, and as we see, she's a fantastic one on one player.

3. Lack of passing

This is the real crux of the argument, in my opinion.  It's easy to blame the previous coaching staff for lack of success.  But we still have yet to see Howard create for her teammates in the way that top tier players do.  That concept is gravity, where a player is so good that opponents are pulled towards the one player, and it creates opportunities elsewhere.  Hypothetically, this should lead to more three point shots via kickouts and ball rotations.  Take, for instance, Breanna Stewart, a great scoring player who averaged 3.5 assists per game last season.  And while 3.5 assists aren't setting the world on fire, over half of those assists were converted by made three pointers.

Player	Assist Totals	3PM Assists	% of Assists from 3PM
Breanna Stewart	134	79	58.9
Napheesa Collier	115	62	52.5
Aliyah Boston	126	61	48.4
Dearica Hambry	139	50	35.9
Rhyne Howard	94	26	27.6

This is what I'd argue is the most important aspect that the Dream need to improve on this season, specifically Howard.  A majority of her assists came off dump-off passes in the paint.  There is nothing wrong with that concept.  But I think it is possibly indicative of a player who holds onto the ball a dribble too long, IE she should get rid of it a beat sooner than she does.  If you've ever played basketball, you know that getting too deep can create problems in terms of kicking the ball out.  I suspect that Howard has played this way, probably out of necessity and the way the team is fundamentally built.  There's also the argument that maybe the Dream haven't had good shooters, but I don't believe in bad shooters.  There are no bad shooters, only bad shots.  If a player is open they need to shoot the ball, and open players will make a punishing amount of open shots.